NBA power rankings: Portland Trail Blazers take over top spot, Knicks drop to the bottom

August 09, 2024

Each week, Neil Greenberg will give his objective NBA power rankings based on a team’s ability to win games (via the Pythagorean win expectation, modified for the NBA) and Dean Oliver’s “Four Factors of Basketball Success,” which assesses the following:

Shooting, as measured by effective field goal percentage.
Rebounding, as measured by a team’s offensive and defensive rebounding percentages.
Free throw rate, calculated by taking a team’s free throws made divided by their field goals attempted.
Turnover rate on a per-possession basis.

Included with each team is its actual record plus its offensive and defensive rating, which is how many points scored/allowed per 100 possessions. The league has averaged 106.2 points scored per 100 possessions through Tuesday. The bigger the difference, the better the team is performing.

Here are this week’s power ratings along with each team’s points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Agree or disagree? Let Neil know on Twitter @ngreenberg.

1. Portland Trail Blazers (26-7), Last week’s ranking: 4
Offensive Rating: 108.8
Defensive Rating: 101.0

They have won nine of their last 10, with the sole loss coming at the hands of the Houston Rockets on the road. They are holding opponents to the lowest effective field goal percentage in the league (45.8 percent).

2. Golden State Warriors (25-5), Last week’s ranking: 1
Offensive Rating: 109.4
Defensive Rating: 99.4

Back-to-back losses in Los Angeles slides them down a peg, and they never really were in the game against the Lakers — even without Kobe Bryant in the lineup.

3. Dallas Mavericks (23-10), Last week’s ranking: 3
Offensive Rating: 114.5
Defensive Rating: 107.2

Rajon Rondo has helped shore up the Mavericks’ defense, but now the offense has to catch up to where it was before the trade.

4. Toronto Raptors (24-8), Last week’s ranking: 2
Offensive Rating: 115.2
Defensive Rating: 106.7

The Raptors have held it together without DeMar DeRozan in the lineup, winning eight of their last 10 macthups. Kyle Lowry is setting career highs for win shares per 48 minutes (.234) for the league’s best team in offensive efficiency (115.2 points per 100 possessions).

5. Memphis Grizzlies (23-8), Last week’s ranking: 6

Offensive Rating: 109.2
Defensive Rating: 104

The Grizzlies stopped a four game skid but need to get Zach Randolph (knee) back in the lineup. When he has been on the court this season, the Grizz have a net point differential of plus-11.1 points per 100 possessions. That drops to a minus-2.5 when he is on the bench.

6. Chicago Bulls (22-10), Last week’s ranking: 10
Offensive Rating: 108.9
Defensive Rating: 104.5

Jimmy Butler is having a fantastic season (14.0 wins above replacement), but now Rookie Nikola Mirotic is starting to make himself known. He scored 27 points against Memphis which included hitting all six of his shots from beyond the three-point line.

7. Atlanta Hawks (23-8), Last week’s ranking: 5
Offensive Rating: 108.1
Defensive Rating: 103.1

Atlanta is off to one of their best starts to a season in more than 20 years.

8. Los Angeles Clippers (21-11), Last week’s ranking: 7
Offensive Rating: 112.3
Defensive Rating: 106.8

They drop a slot after losing five straight on the road, but play seven of their next eight games at home.

9. Houston Rockets (21-9), Last week’s ranking: 9
Offensive Rating: 105.1
Defensive Rating: 101.5

James Harden continues to have an MVP-caliber season.

10. Washington Wizards (22-9), Last week’s ranking: 11
Offensive Rating: 105.7
Defensive Rating: 102.8

The Wizards narrowly beat the Houston Rockets, but then got trounced by the Mavericks. Their road games against the Oklahoma City Thunder and defending champion San Antonio Spurs will help clarify if this team is merely a good Eastern Conference team or legitimate NBA title contender.

11. San Antonio Spurs (19-14), Last week’s ranking: 8
Offensive Rating: 107.1
Defensive Rating: 103.4

Kawhi Leonard, who was voted the most valuable player of last year’s NBA Finals, continues to miss games with a torn ligament in his right hand. It’s a huge loss for the defending champs, who scored 13.2 net points per 100 possessions with Leonard on the court this season.

12. Cleveland Cavaliers (18-13), Last week’s ranking: 12
Offensive Rating: 110.5
Defensive Rating: 107.8

SPOILER ALERT: Coach David Blatt isn’t the problem, LeBron James is.

13. Oklahoma City Thunder (15-17), Last week’s ranking: 14
Offensive Rating: 104.5
Defensive Rating: 102.5

Russell Westbrook is doing his best to keep the Thunder in contention. The team has gone 11-5 since his return and he’s topped 30 points in eight of the 18 games he’s played in. But Oklahoma City will need a healthy Kevin Durant to be a true playoff contender.

With Durant in the lineup, the Thunder score 9.4 more points per 100 possessions and have an effective field goal percentage of 52.8 percent. That drops to 47.9 percent when he is on the bench.

14. Phoenix Suns (18-15), Last week’s ranking: 13
Offensive Rating: 108.9
Defensive Rating: 107.1

According to the Simple Rating System, the Suns are 1.2 points per game better than the average team. That might not be good enough to hold on to the eighth seed in the West.

15. Milwaukee Bucks (16-16), Last week’s ranking: 18
Offensive Rating: 103.9
Defensive Rating: 104.4

The Bucks are 0.53 points per game worse than an average team, which puts their No. 6 seed in the East in doubt. They also rank 23rd in points scored per 100 possessions (103.9).

16. New Orleans Pelicans (16-15), Last week’s ranking: 15
Offensive Rating: 109.4
Defensive Rating: 109.6

Eric Gordon has played just 12 games this season, but is getting closer to returning to the lineup. Last year, he shot over 39 percent form beyond the three-point arc, something that is sorely missing from the club in 2014.

17. Boston Celtics (10-18), Last week’s ranking: 16
Offensive Rating: 104.8
Defensive Rating: 106

Since trading Rondo to the Mavericks, the Boston Celtics have won one game (Minnesota Timberwolves) and then dropped four straight.

18. Brooklyn Nets (15-16), Last week’s ranking: 20
Offensive Rating: 103.5
Defensive Rating: 105.4

Kevin Garnett is going out with a whimper: 7.5 points and 1.8 assists per game for the 38-year-old forward.

19. Sacramento Kings (13-18), Last week’s ranking: 17
Offensive Rating: 107.8
Defensive Rating: 109.3

Firing Coach Mike Malone hasn’t delivered the spark the team may have hoped: they are just 2-5 under coach Tyrone Corbin. But, there is some light at the ned of the runnel. The Kings rank first in the league at getting to the free-throw line (free throws as a percentage of all field goals attempted) and grab a league-high 28.7 percent of offensive rebounds.

20. Indiana Pacers (11-21), Last week’s ranking: 21
Offensive Rating: 101.0
Defensive Rating: 102.9

George Hill returned to the lineup and immediately became the team leader in points per game (12.8) in a reserve role.

21. Denver Nuggets (13-19), Last week’s ranking: 19
Offensive Rating: 104.7
Defensive Rating: 107.8

They rank in the bottom 10 for both offensive and defensive efficiency.

22. Utah Jazz (11-21), Last week’s ranking: 24
Offensive Rating: 106.6
Defensive Rating: 110.7

Rookie Dante Exum, who was drafted fifth overall in last year’s draft, has produced zero win shares despite playing over 18 minutes per game.

23. Miami Heat (14-18), Last week’s ranking: 22
Offensive Rating: 105.8
Defensive Rating: 109.4

They lost to the Philadelphia 76ers. That’s sugar coating it, let me try again.

The Heat led by 23 points in the second half and still lost to the Philadelphia 76ers.

That still doesn’t do it justice, so here is the win probability chart from the game.

24. Detroit Pistons (8-23), Last week’s ranking: 28
Offensive Rating: 102.2
Defensive Rating: 106.8

Neither a 13-game losing streak nor 3-19 start to the season can derail playoff hopes in the Eastern Conference.

25. Charlotte Hornets (10-22), Last week’s ranking: 23
Offensive Rating: 101.5
Defensive Rating: 106.4

The Hornets won four games in a row with Lance Stephenson out of the lineup and then lost their past three. If they have ay hope of turning things around, they must improve their shooting.

26. Los Angeles Lakers (10-22), Last week’s ranking: 25
Offensive Rating: 106.6
Defensive Rating: 113.3

Kobe Bryant got some rest then messed around and got a triple-double.

27. Orlando Magic (13-22), Last week’s ranking: 26
Offensive Rating: 101.2
Defensive Rating: 107.0

The Magic are currently the ninth seed in the Eastern Conference despite playing a league-average strength of schedule.

28. Philadelphia 76ers (4-26), Last week’s ranking: 30
Offensive Rating: 92.7
Defensive Rating: 105.7

The offense is terrible (last in the league for points scored per 100 possessions) but the defense is sound and ranks 13th in the league for points allowed per 100 possessions.

29. Minnesota Timberwolves (5-25), Last week’s ranking: 29
Offensive Rating: 101.6
Defensive Rating: 112.3

The Timberwolves have won one game since Nov. 30 and have dropped nine straight.

30. New York Knicks (5-28), Last week’s ranking: 27
Offensive Rating: 104.4
Defensive Rating: 112.0

The Knicks have won one game since Nov. 24, when they beat the Celtics on the road.

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